EDITORS/NEWS DIRECTORS:
While Americans continue to struggle under high rents, as many as 223,000 affordable housing units could disappear across the country in the next five years alone.
Those units were built with the federal Low-Income Housing Tax Credit, which gives developers tax credits in exchange for keeping rents low. It has pumped out 3.6 million units since 1986, has enjoyed bipartisan support, and is now central to presidential candidate Kamala Harris' housing plan.
The catch?
The buildings typically only need to be kept affordable for a minimum of 30 years. For the wave of construction in the 1990s, those deadlines are arriving now, threatening to hemorrhage affordable housing when Americans need it most.
Some states are trying to stop the leakage, including with local governments or nonprofits buying the buildings to keep them affordable. But the solutions aren't airtight, leaving some renters facing huge rent increases and eviction.
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READ AP'S STORY
As affordable housing disappears, states scramble to shore up the losses
Takeaways from AP's report on affordable housing disappearing across the U.S.
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LIHTC AFFORDABLE HOUSING IN YOUR STATE
Nationally, data on LIHTC units that will lose their affordability remains a rough estimate. The best nationwide analysis estimated that by 2030 roughly 350,000 LIHTC units are at risk of losing affordability, according to the National Housing Preservation Database or NHPD.
There are state level reports available from NHPD and their national dataset can be broken down by state or city. The dataset isn't public, but the organization that runs it, Public and Affordable Housing Research Corporation, accepts requests and typically grants journalists access.
The data from NHPD, while the most accessible and accurate nationally, is a rough, upper-bound estimate, meaning it's the maximum number of units that are at risk of expiring. It's crucial to speak with NHPD see where their biggest data gaps are because they may be in your state.
For the most accurate data on when LIHTC units are expiring in your state, ask your state's housing finance agency. (They may redirect you to another housing arm, but it's a good place to start). Statewide or citywide housing nonprofits may also have a good grasp of the issue.
It's important to discuss with your state housing agency the accuracy of their data. Below is a roadmap of the data pitfalls.
GOING DEEPER: The data dilemma
There's dearth of accurate data for a few reasons:
1. While LIHTC is a federal program, it's administered by states and no federal agency aggregates national, accurate and updated data on LIHTC units.
1. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development has a national data set, but it is wildly inaccurate for quantifying unit expirations and doesn't account for any of the caveats below.
2. State's have made their own rules around LIHTC units. Some have extended the 30 year federal minimum affordability period. California's is 55 years, for example.
3. The LIHTC tax credits are distributed through an application process, and certain states assign more points to applications that promise to extend their affordability period beyond 30 years. That information is held at the contract level, and states may or may not aggregate that into their data set.
1. Some of these contracts are from the 1990s in paper form, making it difficult for states to digitize and aggregate them.
2. While a LIHTC property might be losing it's affordability requirement, there may be other municipal, state or federal subsidies applied to the property that extend the affordability period beyond LIHTC's expiration. This is the hardest data point to factor for, and would require assessing a constellation of different programs.
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CONSIDER THESE REPORTING THREADS
1. How many LIHTC affordable housing units are in your state? How many are set to expire in the next five or ten years?
1. What percentage of the states affordable housing stock is that?
2. Does a dearth of data in your state impede lawmakers and activists ability to stop LIHTC units from losing their affordability?
3. What are the strategies that your state or city has put in place to keep the buildings affordable?
1. Does your state have a right of first refusal for local governments to purchase expiring LIHTC properties and keep them affordable? Can the state or city show that this has been a success?
2. Does your state require that the landlord provide notice to tenants and government agencies that the unit is expiring?
3. Does your state prioritize expiring developments for new tax credits that would extend the affordability period? Can the state show they've done this successfully?
4. How many expired LIHTC units has your state or city been able to keep affordable?
5. Has your state passed a law to extend LIHTC affordability periods past 30 years? If not, why?
6. Housing and tenant rights groups can help you zero in on properties that have or are expiring and speak to the residents.
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READ ADDITIONAL AP COVERAGE
Why are so many voters frustrated by the US economy? It's home prices
A record number of Americans can't afford their rent. Lawmakers are scrambling to help
To stem the housing crisis, religious congregations are building homes
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EMBED THIS CHART
This AP digital embed chart shows the estimated number of rental homes nationally at risk of losing affordability restrictions in the coming years. This chart is current as of Oct. 1, 2024, and will not update. Source: Public and Affordable Housing Research Corporation.
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Localize It is a resource produced regularly by The Associated Press for its customers' use. Questions can be directed to Katie Oyan at koyan@ap.org.
