October ended in the green with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hovering around all-time highs, but if history is any guide, November used to deliver even better returns--as it's been the most consistently bullish month for U.S. stocks.
While no single factor fully explains the November seasonality, the combination of earnings reports, holiday optimism and institutional portfolio adjustments often contribute to seasonal tailwinds for Wall Street.
Seasonality Says The Real Fireworks Could Be Coming Now
Looking at 30 years of data, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) has climbed an average of 2.85% in November, finishing the month higher 83% of the time.
The biggest November win came in 2020, when Pfizer's vaccine news sent markets flying and the S&P surged 10.1%. On the flip side, the weakest was 2008--amid the financial crisis--with a loss of 6.96%.
The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ)--which tracks the Nasdaq 100--averaged gains of 2.77% in November since 1995.
It boasts a 77% win rate, higher than any other month, making November the second-best month after October for tech stocks. Its most explosive November came in 2001 with a 16.96% jump. The worst was again in 2008, down 11.46%.
Blue chips in the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA) follow a similar rhythm. Since 1995, the Dow's November performance averaged a 2.8% gain with a 78% win rate, outperforming all other months. The Dow leapt 11.9% in November 2020 but lost 5.6% during the 2008 crash.
Remarkably, all three indexes have ended November higher in 12 of the past 13 years.
| Index | Avg. November Return | Win Rate | Best November | Worst November |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.85% | 83% | +10.1% (2020) | -6.96% (2008) |
| Nasdaq 100 | +2.77% | 77% | +16.96% (2001) | -11.46% (2008) |
| Dow Jones | +2.8% | 78% | +11.9% (2020) | -5.6% (2008) |
7 Stocks That Historically Love November
Beyond the indexes, some individual stocks have consistently delivered in November, posting strong average gains and a high frequency of monthly advances.
- Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD)
November is historically AMD's best month, with average returns of 12.07% and a 67% win rate. It gained 52.39% in November 2009--its strongest ever. Its worst came in 2000, down 32.6%. Last year, AMD dropped 4.79%, ending a six-month November win streak.
- Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA)
Nvidia sees November as its second-best month, with a 10.55% average gain and a 77% win rate--the most consistent positive month of the year. It soared 56.5% in November 1999 and its worst was a 22.48% decline in 2018. Notably, Nvidia has closed higher in each of the last six Novembers.
- Charles Schwab Corp. (NYSE:SCHW)
Schwab's top-performing month is also November, boasting a 6.39% average gain and a 67% win rate. The company surged 25.71% in November 2002, while its worst performance came in 2000, down 21.17%. It's up in each of the past three Novembers.
- Boeing Co. (NYSE:BA)
Boeing averaged a 5.9% gain in November, with a 73% win rate. The stock rallied 45.9% in November 2020, its strongest month in recent years, while its worst came during the 2008 crisis, with an 18.68% drop. Boeing has three consecutive positive Novembers.
- Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL)
Royal Caribbean tends to thrive in November, with a 5.81% average gain and 73% win rate. It jumped 39.68% in November 2020, while falling 30.53% in 2008. The stock is on a three-month November win streak and has finished higher in eight of the past nine.
- BlackRock Inc. (NYSE:BLK)
The asset manager sees an average November gain of 4.79% with a 73% win rate. Its best came last year with a 22.69% jump. The worst was in 2001, when it fell 10.34%. BlackRock has closed higher in 13 of the last 14 Novembers.
- Home Depot Inc. (NYSE:HD)
Home Depot posted a 3.95% average gain in November with a 73% win rate. It surged 22.02% in 2001 but dropped 9.36% in 2007. The home improvement retailer has notched five consecutive positive Novembers.
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