Spotify Remains In Rhythm But Ad Market Needs Remix

Nabaparna Bhattacharya

November 05, 2025

Spotify Technology (NYSE:SPOT) shares climbed Wednesday after the streaming giant posted stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings and projected continued subscriber growth.

The firm posted quarterly earnings of $3.83 per share, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of a $1.87 profit.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, Spotify expects revenue of $5.26 billion (4.5 billion euros). The company expects total Premium subscribers to reach 289 million.

Also Read: Spotify Isn’t Afraid To Charge More Even If Its Rivals Hold Back: Daniel Ek Says, ‘Not Just A Music Service Anymore’

Rosenblatt analyst Barton Crockett reiterated the Neutral rating on the stock, lowering the price forecast from $700 to $670

Crockett said Spotify’s third quarter beat guidance on ad-based users and gross margins.

He noted fourth-quarter guidance came in softer than his model, mainly on advertising revenue.

Quarterly ad trends slipped to flat constant currency from 4.6% growth in the second quarter.

The analyst now expects ad sales to accelerate in the second half of 2026.

Spotify claims 245 million in-car listeners, equal to 34% of MAUs and 15% of hours. It also says it leads SiriusXM in car listening time.

Edison’s Share of Ear for the second quarter of 2025 shows SiriusXM at 13% in-car, Spotify at 6%, contradicting that claim.

Programmatic ads are rising, and he pointed to new disclosure showing auction ads account for about 13% of ad sales.

He said direct sales lagged, with ads still run by interim co-heads after Spotify ousted its ad chief.

Crockett argued programmatic strength supports a re-acceleration in the second half of 2026.

The analyst lowered the fiscal year 2025 revenue estimate from $19.47 billion to $19.43 billion.

Price Action: SPOT shares were trading higher by 0.86% to $635 at last check Wednesday.

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