Domino’s Pizza Inc. (NYSE:DPZ) has maintained its full-year 2025 guidance after reporting third-quarter earnings and sales that exceeded expectations, a performance attributed to successful promotional campaigns and expanding margins.

TD Cowen Keeps Buy Rating, Adjusts Price Forecast

TD Cowen analysts, led by Andrew M. Charles, have maintained their Buy rating for the company. However, they have slightly adjusted their price forecast from $510 to $500.

This revision, they note, reflects a balanced view, acknowledging the company’s commitment to achieving over 3% same-store sales (SSS) in 2026 while also factoring in a general softening of fourth-quarter trends that management believes is widespread across the sector.

Also Read: Big Deals And Stuffed Crust Keep Domino’s Customers Coming Back

Despite the strong third-quarter results, TD Cowen has lowered its 2025 U.S. SSS forecast from 3.5% to 3%. In the third quarter, U.S. SSS grew by 5.2%, primarily driven by increased traffic.

This was underscored by an 8.3% rise in carry-out SSS and a 2.5% increase in delivery. Domino’s management has reaffirmed its 3% guidance for 2025 U.S. SSS, pointing to a category-wide slowdown in the current quarter.

The firm also highlighted the positive impact of the brand relaunch, the introduction of new bread bite varieties, and the return of the $9.99 “Best Deal Ever,” which management stated is accretive to franchisee profitability and was reinstated at the request of franchisees after a short break.

TD Cowen’s financial model now projects 2025 revenue of $4,921.9 million, a slight decrease from its previous estimate of $4,938.3 million. For 2026, the firm forecasts revenues of $5,174.4 million, down from earlier estimates of $5,193.3 million.

These revenue projections translate to an EV/S multiple of 3.9x for 2025, and 3.7x for 2026. The analysts also now expect a fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $5.23, a decrease from their prior estimate of $5.42.

However, they have raised their 2025 EPS forecast to $17.45 from $17.35 and their 2026 EPS estimate to $19.49 from $19.39.

BTIG Maintains Bullish View, Sees Market Share Gains

In a separate research note, BTIG analysts, led by Peter Saleh, reiterated their Buy rating and a $530 price forecast, anticipating that Domino’s will continue to capture market share and achieve positive comparable store sales even amid broader consumer weakness.

The analysts noted that Domino’s domestic same-store sales grew 5.2% in the quarter, outperforming BTIG’s own estimate of 3.5% and the Street’s consensus of 4.2%.

Delivery sales increased by 2.5% during the quarter, reflecting approximately 1.3% in menu price increases and some benefit from a change in product mix tied to their new Stuffed Crust offerings.

This implies that order volumes were up by roughly 1%, a notable achievement even with the full rollout of partnerships with Uber Eats (NYSE:UBER) and DoorDash (NASDAQ:DASH).

BTIG anticipates that domestic comparable store sales for the fourth quarter may be slightly lower than the third quarter, which could result in a modest miss against targets.

The firm attributed the recent softness in restaurant spending to several factors, including higher consumer costs due to tariff-related price increases during the back-to-school season and the potential impact of GLP-1 drug usage.

The firm estimates that the latter may be reducing industry sales by 50-100 basis points this year, particularly among lower-income consumers.

BTIG now projects fiscal year 2025 same-store sales to increase by 2.8%, a slight decrease from the prior 2.9%, while maintaining its 3.1% growth forecast for 2026.

On the earnings front, BTIG has modestly raised its fiscal year 2025 EPS estimate to $17.47 from $17.38 and its fiscal year 2026 EPS forecast to $19.25 from $18.93. BTIG’s $530 price forecast is based on a 27.5x price-to-earnings multiple applied to its 2026 EPS estimate of $19.25.

The firm notes this represents a roughly 3x premium to Domino’s three-year historical average, which it believes is justified by the company’s expected sales and profit growth.

Price Action: DPZ shares were trading lower by 2.32% to $414.37 at last check Wednesday.

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