Exxon To Beat Q3 Expectations Despite Lower Commodity Prices: JP Morgan

Lekha Gupta

October 08, 2025

With global energy markets facing volatility and shifting demand, major oil companies are under pressure to adapt and strategize for future growth. As these industry giants navigate financial and operational challenges, investors keenly watch for insights into their performance and strategic maneuvers.

JP Morgan analyst Arun Jayaram reiterated an Overweight rating on Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) with a price forecast of $124.

The analyst expects modest upside to the company’s earnings and expects an adjusted EPS of $1.86, about 3% above consensus ($1.81).

The stance reflects the company’s updated third-quarter commodity prices.

Also Read: ExxonMobil Remains The Go-To Safety Trade In Volatile Energy Market: Analysts

On Monday, the company stated that it anticipates changes in oil prices to impact its Upstream results by $(100) million to $300 million in the third quarter compared to the second quarter.

The analyst stated that ExxonMobil anticipates approximately $500 million in non-cash restructuring charges associated with corporate and technical operations.

Analyst Projections

For the Upstream segment, the analyst expects third-quarter total production of 4,790 MBoe/d and liquids output of 3,361 MBo/d, slightly above consensus estimates of 4,708 MBoe/d and 3,358 MBo/d, respectively.

For Energy Products, Jayaram projects earnings of $2.0 billion (vs. $1.37 billion in the second quarter), slightly above the midpoint implied by the company.

In Chemicals, he sees net income of $500 million, up from $293 million in the second quarter.

Meanwhile, for Specialty Products, the analyst forecasts earnings at around $788 million, vs. $780 million in the prior quarter.

Jayaram projects $15.3 billion in operating cash flow, $7.8 billion in capital expenditure, and $7.5 billion in free cash flow for the third quarter.

This analyst expects $4.2 billion in dividend payments and $5 billion in share buybacks.

The company plans to release third-quarter results on October 31.

Investors can gain exposure to XOM via Global X Funds Global X PureCap MSCI Energy ETF (NYSE: GXPE) and Vanguard Energy ETF (NYSE: VDE).

XOM Price Action: Exxon Mobil shares were up 0.54% at $114.87 at the time of publication on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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Photo by Ken Wolter via Shutterstock

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