The global materials market contracted in 2024, as metals and mining revenues fell by 6% to approximately $3 trillion, McKinsey’s Global Materials Perspective 2025 shows. The consultancy noted profitability remained resilient, with stronger cash positions and sustained productivity gains, even as the sector faced a more complex and fragmented global environment.
The study shows increasing resource nationalism and protectionism, the rise of new demand vectors from AI and defense, emerging signs of a productive rebound, and the slowdown of decarbonization in selected regions, the firm noted.
Together, these dynamics created a year of transition for the industry, a year marked by geopolitical realignments, technological transformation, and uneven progress toward sustainability targets.
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The rise of resource nationalism has slowly reshaped the global supply landscape. Key producers, such as Indonesia and Chile, tightened controls over critical minerals, imposed export restrictions, and rewrote licensing conditions. Key importers responded with nearshoring efforts, political pressure, and strategic stakes in key commodity projects.
McKinsey’s analysts said this new wave of protectionism adds operational and strategic complexity for multinational miners, forcing them to build local partnerships or risk exclusion from key growth markets.
Furthermore, the emergence of AI and defense as significant sources of demand is starting to reconfigure the sector. The expansion of data centers, semiconductor plants, and AI infrastructure has created new demand for copper, aluminum, and rare earth elements.
McKinsey estimates that the data center trend alone will lift global copper demand by 3% by 2030, partially offsetting the slower uptake from clean energy sectors. Meanwhile, heightened geopolitical tensions are expected to fuel demand for essential defense manufacturing materials, such as titanium, nickel, and various specialty alloys.
A third notable trend is the ongoing productivity rebound in mining and materials production. Generative AI, along with automation and advanced analytics, is paving the way for efficiency boosts after a tough period of declining ore grades and escalating costs. An example of this trend is miners utilizing autonomous haul trucks or startups like KoBold Metals are leveraging AI for cost-effective mineral exploration.
New technologies are redefining capital intensity and operational efficiency, the report said, noting visible productivity gains in North and Latin America since 2022. The sector’s total shareholder returns have increased 3.5 times since 2015, with profitability in 2024 estimated at $1.3 trillion, roughly half of which is derived from the metals and mining sector.
Despite the push for decarbonization, progress has hit a wall. In the Western sphere, electric vehicle sales have plateaued, and almost a third of green steel initiatives have either been postponed or scrapped altogether. At the same time, global thermal coal production has surged to around eight gigatons, highlighting the inconsistent regulatory efforts in crucial regions.
Looking ahead to 2035, the firm expects sustained demand growth driven by population expansion, the rise of the middle class, and ongoing energy transition needs. McKinsey identifies three key opportunity areas: expanding into new critical minerals and regions, accelerating productivity through AI and automation, and pursuing pragmatic decarbonization strategies that strike a balance between cost and impact.
Given the short-term dynamics, the 2025 mining revenues could look markedly different. Precious metals have been an outstanding performer year-to-date, as spot gold just broke yet another historic milestone, surging above $4,000 per ounce.
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