Apparel is squarely in Washington's tariff crosshairs, yet price tags won't spike the moment a shipment lands.
What To Know: Retail chains bought most of their 2025 back‑to‑school stock months ago, locking in factory costs before President Trump's universal 10 % levy -- and the 145 % penalty on China -- took effect. "Tariffs are a tax paid by the U.S. importer that will be passed along to the end consumer," notes David French of the National Retail Federation in a statement to CNBC, but importers can stall that hand‑off until existing contracts and warehouse stockpiles run dry.
Contracts, Hedging, And The De Minimis Twist
Big brands also buffer blows with currency hedges and long‑term supplier agreements that fix prices through at least the holiday season. The immediate pain falls on fast‑fashion giants like Shein and Temu, whose one‑off parcels lose duty‑free status after Trump killed the de minimis loophole.
See also: Nancy Pelosi Called US-China Trade “A Job Loser:” Old Remarks Reemerge Amid Trump Tariff Push
Still, Julia Hughes of the United States Fashion Industry Association warns, "Ultimately, no one wins." Once forward hedges expire, the Budget Lab at Yale predicts apparel prices will leap 64 % in the short run and remain 27 % higher long term.
Consumers Shift Before Stickers Do
Shoppers are already bracing. Three‑quarters told Empower they've begun "trading down," swapping new releases for dupes, thrift finds, or outright secondhand buys. "Customers are doubling down on resale because they know there is no tariff to pay," says Christos Garkinos of luxury‑resale site Covet by Christos. Re‑commerce is forecast to hit $292 billion by 2029, but Hughes cautions that supply can't keep pace with demand. As inventories thin and fall collections roll in, the delayed sticker shock will land, just not before retailers exhaust every last tariff‑free T‑shirt.
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