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Why This Streaming Giant Could Be December's Best Stock Pick, Backed By 20 Years Of Data

Piero Cingari
December 02, 2024

As the year draws to a close, investors are looking for one last chance to make a winning play in 2024.

The S&P 500 has delivered a strong 27% surge year-to-date, but some may feel they’ve missed out on the gains—or even left money on the table with premature moves earlier in the year.

While the broader market often enjoys a Santa Claus rally, one stock in particular stands out for its incredible seasonality: Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX).

If historical patterns hold true, Netflix could be the perfect pick to buy in December and hold through end of January.

Here’s why.

Netflix's Stellar Seasonality: By The Numbers

As soon as Christmas songs start filling the air, Netflix has historically outperformed its peers in the S&P 500.

Data from Seasonax shows that the streaming giant has rallied an average of 14.1% from early December through the end of January, with a median return of 11%.

Over the last 20 years, Netflix has closed this two-month period in the green 80% of the time, or 16 out of 20 years.

Let's break that down further:

  • Average return in positive years: +24.98%
  • Average loss in negative years: -20.64%
  • Best performance: +117.42% (Dec. 2012 – Jan. 2013)
  • Worst performance: -30.71% (Dec. 2021 – Jan. 2022)

For perspective, Netflix has delivered double-digit returns 12 times during this period, making it a seasonal gem for traders looking to capitalize on recurring market patterns.

Here’s a snapshot of Netflix’s performance from early December through late January over the last 20 years:

Start DateStart Price ($)End DateEnd Price ($)Profit (%)
Dec. 2, 20041.62Jan. 31, 20051.64+1.33%
Dec. 2, 20053.96Jan. 31, 20063.94-0.51%
Dec. 4, 20064.13Jan. 31, 20073.26-21.15%
Dec. 3, 20073.40Jan. 31, 20083.59+5.76%
Dec. 2, 20083.32Feb. 2, 20095.28+59.20%
Dec. 2, 20098.43Feb. 1, 20108.72+3.44%
Dec. 2, 201027.63Jan. 31, 201130.58+10.68%
Dec. 2, 20119.48Jan. 31, 201217.17+81.11%
Dec. 3, 201210.86Jan. 31, 201323.61+117.42%
Dec. 2, 201351.99Jan. 31, 201458.48+12.48%
Dec. 2, 201450.33Feb. 2, 201563.01+25.19%
Dec. 2, 2015128.93Feb. 1, 201694.09-27.02%
Dec. 2, 2016120.81Jan. 31, 2017140.71+16.47%
Dec. 4, 2017184.04Jan. 31, 2018270.30+46.87%
Dec. 3, 2018290.30Jan. 31, 2019339.50+16.95%
Dec. 2, 2019309.99Jan. 31, 2020345.09+11.32%
Dec. 2, 2020503.38Feb. 1, 2021539.04+7.08%
Dec. 2, 2021616.47Jan. 31, 2022427.14-30.71%
Dec. 2, 2022320.41Jan. 31, 2023353.86+10.44%
Dec. 4, 2023453.90Jan. 31, 2024564.11+24.28%
Data: Seasonax

Election Year Edge: A Netflix Specialty

Netflix's late-year success is even more pronounced during U.S. presidential election cycles. In the last five election years, the stock has never posted a loss during the December-January period.

Instead, it delivered an average return of 34.33%, with a maximum profit of 117.4% during the 2012-2013 cycle.

Here's how Netflix performed during recent election years:

Start DateStart Price ($)End DateEnd Price ($)Profit (%)
Dec. 2, 20041.62Jan. 31, 20051.64+1.33%
Dec. 2, 20083.32Feb. 2, 20095.28+59.20%
Dec. 3, 201210.86Jan. 31, 201323.61+117.42%
Dec. 2, 2016120.81Jan. 31, 2017140.71+16.47%
Dec. 2, 2020503.38Feb. 1, 2021539.04+7.08%
Data: Seasonax

Read also:

Why Netflix Is the Holiday Stock You Can't Ignore

Whether it's delivering triple-digit gains in its best years or remaining largely resilient in bearish conditions, the streaming giant has been a reliable performer for traders seeking late-year opportunities.

So, why does Netflix shine so brightly in December and January? Several factors might play a role:

  • Holiday binge-watching: As people gather around TVs during the holidays, Netflix tends to dominate consumer attention.
  • New-year optimism: Investors often position themselves for strong earnings results, driving demand for high-growth stocks like Netflix.
  • Seasonal market rally: The broader "Santa Claus rally" typically provides tailwinds for stocks with positive sentiment.

Now Read:

  • Dollar Enters Its Most Bearish Month Of The Year: Could December 2024 Be Any Different?

Image: Shutterstock

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