Election forecaster and historian Allan Lichtman has made his final prediction on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election.
What Happened: Several months ago, Lichtman shared his preliminary findings based on a 13-key system he created, but said the forecast would be updated after the Democratic National Convention.
Ahead of the first presidential debate between Trump and Harris, set for Sept. 10, Lichtman has made his prediction for the 2024 election and shared his winner of each of the 13 keys, as shared with the New York Times.
Here's a look at the "13 Keys to the White House" from Lichtman, which provide true and false answers and keys that favor one candidate over the other.
- Midterm Gains: Democrats did better than expected in the 2022 election, but lost seats, making key false, good for Trump
- Incumbent: Biden withdrew from race, costing Democrats the key, good for Trump
- Primary Contest: Democrats united behind Harris after Biden withdrew, key is true, good for Harris
- Third-Party Candidate: With Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspending his campaign, the key is now true, good for Harris
- Economy Is Strong: Lichtman said "the economy is not in a recession" and the key is true, good for Harris
- Economic Growth: Lichtman said economic growth is far ahead of previous terms making the key true, good for Harris
- Policy Changes: The historian names items like the Chips Act, rejoining the Paris Agreement and the Inflation Reduction Act as making the key true, good for Harris
- Social Unrest: Lichtman said nothing massive has happened to make the key false, but it could flip with schools in session and controversy on Middle East policy, good for Harris
- White House Scandal: Key is true as there is no bipartisan recognition of corruption that implicates the president himself, Lichtman said, can't be a family member like Hunter Biden, good for Harris
- Incumbent Charismatic: Harris does not meet the requirements of a once-in-generation candidate, key is false, good for Trump
- Challenger Charismatic: Lichtman said that while some people think Trump is God, he doesn't meet the once-in-a-generation candidate requirement, key is true, good for Harris
- Foreign Policy Failure: Currently false, but could flip, not being counted
- Foreign Policy Success: Currently false, but could flip, not being counted
The 13-key point system sees Harris win eight, Trump win three and two still undecided.
"Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States," Lichtman said.
Lichtman said he is standing behind the prediction and even the two foreign policy or social unrest keys flipping will not be enough for Trump to win the election based on the keys method.
In the last prediction, Lichtman had Harris holding six of the 13 keys making it likely that she would win the election.
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Why It's Important: Lichtman established the 13 keys system in 1981 and has used it to make a prediction on each presidential election since 1984.
Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of nine of the past 10 presidential elections. This includes correctly predicting Trump’s win in 2016 and Biden’s win in 2020.
Lichtman’s only miss was in 2000 when he predicted Al Gore would defeat George W. Bush. Gore won the popular vote in the election, but lost the electoral college.
The election predictor stated in 2016 that his book and paper referred to the popular vote, which would make his 2000 prediction correct, but the 2016 prediction of Donald Trump was wrong as Hillary Clinton won the popular vote. Whether the prediction is for the popular vote winner or electoral college winner, the success rate of 90% has stayed the same over the past 10 elections.
Lichtman was among the few to accurately predict Trump's victory in 2016 (earning him a Sharpie-scribbled note from the candidate lauding the "GOOD CALL!").
"The race was tight, but the keys were right," Lichtman said in his latest prediction video recalling the 2016 race.
Immediately after the first 2024 presidential debate, between Trump and Biden, Lichtman was also quick to warn that Biden dropping out of the race could be a "tragic mistake for Democrats," leading him directly into an online battle with the forecaster Nate Silver. The confidence is rooted in Lichtman's simple, history-driven model, which tunes out polls and pollsters and instead focuses on 13 true-or-false questions that he says hold the "keys" to the White House.
Check This Out:
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Photo: Andrew Angelov via Shutterstock
