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Wall Street Holds Breath After Record Close For Fed Decision, CPI Data: Why This Analyst Sees Positive Inflation Trends Ahead

Shanthi Rexaline
June 11, 2024

U.S. stock futures point to a weak start on Tuesday, signaling a pause after Monday’s record run. Global cues are negative and commodity prices weakened as well. Traders may prefer to wait it out until the Federal Reserve meeting and May inflation reports. A cooler inflation report and/or a dot-plot chart that points to at least two rate cuts could help the market push ahead with renewed optimism. Oracle Corp.’s (NYSE:ORCL) earnings could also be in the spotlight, given the company’s exposure to AI.

FuturesPerformance (+/-)
Nasdaq 100-0.25%
S&P 500-0.22%
Dow-0.35%
R2K-0.85%

In premarket trading on Tuesday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) fell 0.25% to $534.34, and the Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) traded down 0.27% at $463.59, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Cues From Previous Session:

Wall Street posted uneasy gains on Monday ahead of some key economic catalysts. The major indices opened lower but reversed course in early trading and advanced steadily in the morning, They broadly consolidated in the afternoon before ending in the green. Energy, utility, communication services, and consumer discretionary stocks were among the biggest gainers of the session.

The Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 indices closed at a fresh record, although failing to break above their respective intraday peaks.

Index Performance (+/-)Value
Nasdaq Composite+0.35%17,192.53
S&P 500 Index+0.26%5,360.79
Dow Industrials+0.18%38,868.04
Russell 2000+0.25%2,031.61

Insights From Analysts:

Fund manager Louis Navellier maintains his view that momentum remains positive. “The market continues to digest the recent highs, with continued uncertainty on Fed timing, guarded optimism on the consumer, an unusual election cycle, and the distraction of surprising election results in Europe,” he said.

Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel, Senior Economist at WisdomTree, said in his weekly commentary that the May consumer price inflation data and the Fed’s commentary this week will be critical in shaping market expectations and monetary policy direction.

The economist sees some respite in pricing pressure, stemming from the recent pullback in commodity prices, including oil. This should positively influence future inflation readings, he said.

“Lower commodity prices, coupled with potential adjustments in rental index calculations, could lead to more favorable inflation data in the coming months,” Siegel said. “This improvement would be a positive development for the markets and should influence the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions.”

That said, the economist expects the dot-plot chart released along with the Summary of Economic Projections to suggest one to two cuts this year, with some committee members even modeling no cuts.

Upcoming Economic Data:

  • The two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting kicks off on Tuesday.
  • The Treasury will auction 52-week bills at 11:30 a.m. EDT and 10-year notes at 1 p.m. EDT.
  • The Energy Information Administration will release its short-term energy outlook report at 12 p.m. EDT.

See also: Best Futures Trading Software

Stocks In Focus:

  • Yext, Inc. (NYSE:YEXT) fell about 17.5% in premarket trading following the company’s quarterly results announcement.
  • Oracle and Casey’s General Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ:CASY) are among the companies due to release their quarterly results after the market close.
  • Kyndryl Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:KD) moved down over 3% after Reuters reported that the IBM spin-off along with Apollo Global Management, Inc. (NYSE:APO) is planning to make a joint bid for DXC Technology Company (NYSE:DXC). DXC, which spiked in the final few minutes of trading on Monday on the rumor, was up about 3% in the premarket.

Commodities, Bonds And Global Equity Markets:

Crude oil futures, which rallied over 2.90% on Monday, were seen moving down moderately, and gold futures edged down. The 10-year note yielded 4.43%, down 3.9 basis points.

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) fell sharply and has pulled back toward the $67,000 mark.

Among the global equity markets, the Asian markets closed mostly lower amid caution, although the Japanese and South Korean markets bucked the downtrend by recording modest gains. European stocks declined for a third straight session amid anxiety over the geopolitical developments in the region and imminent catalysts from across the Atlantic.

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