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Does 'Sell In May And Go Away' Work For Bitcoin? This Researcher Crunched The Numbers

Khyathi Dalal
June 05, 2024

Crypto researcher TradeTheFlow challenged the prevailing notion that summer is a dull period for cryptocurrency markets, particularly Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC).

What Happened: In a detailed thread on X, Flow analyzes Bitcoin's performance between June 1 and September 30 over the past eight years. He finds mixed results that suggest summer is not necessarily a period of stagnation for Bitcoin.

Over the past eight years, Bitcoin's summer performance has been evenly split, with 50% of the summers ending in the green and the other 50% in the red. The average performance during these months was an 8.4% increase, with a minimum performance of -35.4% and a maximum of 79.2%.

The total crypto market cap and Bitcoin’s volatility index chart contradict the belief that summer is marked by low volatility and sideways price action.

Expanding the analysis over the last 11 years, Flow found that 45% of the summer months ended positively while 55% were negative. This further disproves the idea that summer months are predictably boring for Bitcoin.

Also Read: Bitcoin All-Time Highs A ‘Stone’s Throw Away’ If It Starts Closing Above This Price, Predicts Trader

Why It Matters: Flow’s analysis highlights that seasonality is not a definitive factor in Bitcoin's price action. More significant elements, such as macroeconomic conditions, play a crucial role. Flow suggests that this summer could be driven by macroeconomic factors, hinting at a potentially exciting and bullish period ahead.

Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas also pushed back against the ‘selling in May’ narrative, pointing to ETF investors who pooled $58 billion into equity ETFs, a record for the month.

What’s Next: The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.

Read Next: Trader Sketches ‘Somewhat Safe’ Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin Investment Ideas For 4 To 7 Figure Portfolios

This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Image created using artificial intelligence with Midjourney.

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