Trump Vs. Harris: Nate Silver Says Former President Now Ahead Of Vice President In Electoral College Odds After Adjusting For The DNC 'Bounce'

Ananya Gairola

August 30, 2024

In the latest election forecast, pollster Nate Silver has indicated that former President Donald Trump is slightly ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris as they approach the Labor Day weekend.

What Happened: Despite Harris leading Trump by 3.8 points in the updated Silver Bulletin’s national polling tracker, her chances of winning the Electoral College have seen a decline.

Silver’s forecast shared on Friday, gives Trump a 52.4% chance of winning the Electoral College, which is about 5 points higher than Harris’s 47.3%.

See Also: Marjorie Taylor Greene Calls Kamala Harris ‘Weak And Incompetent’ For Needing ‘Communist Comrade’ Walz To Hold Her Hand During Interviews

Silver attributes this shift to the convention bounce adjustment applied to polls conducted during or after the Democratic National Convention.

He suggests that Harris’s polls might be somewhat inflated at the moment, similar to how Trump’s numbers were inflated after the Republican National Convention.

However, if Harris can maintain her current standing for a few more weeks, Silver believes she could start to rise again in the forecast as the model becomes more confident that she’s out of the convention bounce period.

“Still, the tight polls in Pennsylvania are a worry for the vice president,” he stated.

Why It Matters: Silver had previously stated that Harris had a 97% chance of winning the Electoral College if she secured North Carolina, a pivotal swing state.

Adding to the election fervor, both candidates will have movies released about them in October, weeks before the 2024 presidential election. These films could potentially influence public opinion and impact the election results.

Meanwhile, earlier this week it was reported that Republicans are concerned that Trump’s campaign strategy against Harris may be losing effectiveness. They are also troubled by Trump’s association with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard.

Read Next:

Anthony Scaramucci Accuses Trump Of Plotting ‘Russian-Style Oligarchy’ In US Through Project 2025, Calls Out Ex-President’s ‘Evil Genius’

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of Benzinga Neuro and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

Recommended

4 Cryptos Set to Outperform Bitcoin in 2024 - Ad

The No. 1 AI Stock of 2024 (Not Nvidia) - Ad

This Is How the AI Bull Market Ends - Ad

Movies about Kamala Harris and Donald Trump hit theaters in October. Find out the differences between the movie and why one candidate wants a ban.

Scaramucci Says Melania Trump Would Prefer Kamala Harris To Donald Trump As President

Anthony Scaramucci has claimed that Melania Trump would rather see Kamala Harris win the presidency than her own husband.

2024 Oil Boom

2024 Oil Boom - Ad

There is a much better way to profit from oil in 2024. It's NOT oil stocks, futures, or anything you've likely heard about. In fact, one man used it build a small $1,000 investment into a $100,000 income stream over fifty years.

Americans Split On Election Result Acceptance Between Harris And Trump, Here Is The Candidate They Think More Likely To Accept Voters' Verdict

A survey conducted by ABC News/Ipsos has shed light on the American public's confidence in the acceptance of the upcoming November presidential election results by Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

Trump Vs Harris: Who Do Russia, Iran And China Favor In 2024 Election? Intelligence Officials Weigh In

U.S. intelligence officials believe that Russia, Iran and China have preferred candidates in this year's U.S. presidential election. Each of these foreign powers has different views on who would best serve their interests.

New "Living Missile" to Replace Nuclear Missiles

New "Living Missile" to Replace Nuclear Missiles - Ad

CBS News Reports: "It's an entirely new type of weapon." The New York Times Reports: "No existing defense can stop it." And one small company is building them for the Pentagon!

E. Jean Carroll Case: Appeals Court Skeptical of Trump's Bid to Overturn Sexual Abuse Verdict

E. Jean Carroll's case sees an appeals court skeptical of Donald Trump's bid to overturn a $5 million verdict for sexual abuse and defamation.

UK says it's suspending some arms exports to Israel over the risk of breaking international law

LONDON (AP) — U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer's government said Monday that it's suspending exports of some weapons to Israel because they could be used to break international law — a move with limited military impact intended to increase pressure by Israel's frustrated allies for an end to .

Top AI Stock (It's Not MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN or AAPL)

Top AI Stock (It's Not MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN or AAPL) - Ad

Ross Givens says the #1 artificial intelligence stock is NOT Microsoft, Google, Amazon or Apple, not even Nvidia. Nope -- his research is pointing to a tiny, under-the-radar stock that's trading for just a few dollars right now... And has lined up major partnerships with Honda, Netflix, Pandora, Mercedes Benz and many, many others.

Donald Trump's Billions On Hold As Insiders Sell Off Truth Social Shares

Insiders at Trump Media & Technology Group owned social media platform Truth Social have started offloading their shares.

Major power outage hits Venezuela's capital, with Maduro government blaming 'sabotage'

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — Venezuelans awoke Friday to a major power outage in the capital, Caracas, and several states.

Kamala Harris May Seize This Cutting-Edge Tech -- Act Now

Kamala Harris May Seize This Cutting-Edge Tech -- Act Now - Ad

A new technology (not AI) is powerful enough to save America $1.7 TRILLION in healthcare costs each year. Trump is rumored to use it personally... And Kamala Harris has threatened to have key patents on it seized. Whoever wins the election - it could cause a massive surge in demand... And send a tiny firm with key patents on this technology soaring. It's currently trading for only $7. But it likely won't stay this cheap for long.

Wall Street Eyes Strong Finish To The Week Despite Futures Suggesting Moderation In Tech Buying: Strategist Cautions Against Factoring Rapid, Steep Cuts Ahead Of Next Week's Fed Meeting

Now that the twin inflation reports are in the rearview mirror, U.S. stocks are hanging onto the slender optimism as traders look ahead to the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting meeting.

SEC Charges Galois Capital With Custody Rule Violations, Misleading Investors

SEC charges Florida-based firm Galois Capital for violating the Custody Rule and misleading investors about crypto assets.

The Last Time Gold Flashed This Warning Sign, the Market Dropped 80%

The Last Time Gold Flashed This Warning Sign, the Market Dropped 80% - Ad

Both President Trump and Elon Musk are warning about something that could send the market down 50%, real estate down 40% and savings accounts down 30%.

Apple Reportedly Plans To Switch To OLED For All iPhones Starting 2025, Not Just The Top-Tier Flagships

Apple plans to transition all iPhone models, including the lower-priced iPhone SE, to OLED displays by 2025, phasing out LCDs and excluding Japanese suppliers like Japan Display and Sharp from its handset business.

Maryland awards contract for Francis Scott Key Bridge rebuild after deadly collapse

BALTIMORE (AP) — Maryland transportation leaders on Thursday approved a contract for rebuilding the Francis Scott Key Bridge several months after the 1.6-mile (2.6-kilometer) steel span of a massive container ship that lost power and crashed into one of its supporting columns.

September 23 - The Biggest Crypto Event in History

September 23 - The Biggest Crypto Event in History - Ad

According to the man who called every major market top and bottom for the last 29 years... A single event triggering on September 23rd will send the crypto market soaring. But what's more exciting... is that this event could send a small sector of the crypto market soaring 5X, 25X, and even 100X higher in just days.

Former Deputy Claims Harris Helped Close Backpage, Fallout Affects Sex Workers

In the midst of the 2024 presidential campaign, Kamala Harris finds herself under the microscope for her involvement in the closure of Backpage.com, a well-known online platform for adult services, during her time as the Attorney General of California.

The iPhone 16, new AirPods and other highlights from Apple's product showcase

CUPERTINO, Calif. (AP) — Apple squarely shifted its focus toward artificial intelligence with the unveiling of its hotly anticipated iPhone 16 along with a slew of new features coming with the next update to the device’s operating system. While the new phone lineup headlined Monday's showcase, the tech giant also shared updates to its smartwatch and AirPod lineups.

Red-Hot AI Stock "Disappearing" Soon? (Get In Now)

Red-Hot AI Stock "Disappearing" Soon? (Get In Now) - Ad

Right now, there's an AI stock on the verge of being snapped up by a giant company... And when it does, its price could go flying. The potential gains could be astronomical. You want to get in before that happens... Otherwise the opportunity could pass you by. Your window to buy in is right now...

Red Lobster says it will soon exit bankruptcy protection after judge approves seafood chain's sale

NEW YORK (AP) — After months of dozens of restaurant closings and headlines about “endless shrimp” woes, Red Lobster is poised to soon exit from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

China's Chipmaking Investments Top US, Taiwan, South Korea Combined: What It Means For Nvidia, ASML

China invests $25 billion in chipmaking equipment, surpassing spending by South Korea, Taiwan, and the U.S. This could impact top chipmakers and suppliers like NVIDIA and ASML.

4 Steps to Survive the Coming Market Crash

4 Steps to Survive the Coming Market Crash - Ad

There are massive cracks forming right below the surface of our "shining city." These cracks are a symptom of a much bigger problem that threatens the very foundation of our country. Things are starting to unravel at a fast pace, as America sees worst economic hell our country has ever been in.

GameStop Shares Are Trading Higher: This Week In Review

GameStop Corporation (NYSE: GME) shares are up Friday. Here's what you need to know.

Japan Leads Asia Markets Decline, Europe Slides; Crude Oil Falls below $70 - Global Markets Today While US Slept

US stocks close lower on weak manufacturing data and Fed rate cut uncertainty. Asian markets follow with major declines. Commodities and futures down.

My No. 1 Oil Play for 2024

My No. 1 Oil Play for 2024 - Ad

Do you own oil and gas stocks? Or are you thinking about buying some? If so, you need to see my #1 oil play for 2024. But it's NOT oil stocks, futures, or anything you've likely heard about. Rather, it's an unusual way to potentially bank monthly income from the oil and gas markets.

Another New Jersey offshore wind project runs into turbulence as Leading Light seeks pause

Another offshore wind project in New Jersey is encountering turbulence.

California governor signs laws to protect actors against unauthorized use of AI

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed off Tuesday on legislation aiming at protecting Hollywood actors and performers against unauthorized artificial intelligence that could be used to create digital clones of themselves without their consent.

Could You Retire on a Single AI Stock (Trading for Only $15)?

Could You Retire on a Single AI Stock (Trading for Only $15)? - Ad

Imagine what the perfect AI stock would look like...forefront of AI trend...virtual monopoly in its market... exempt from federal taxes. As you're about to see, this perfect AI stock does exist, and is currently trading for only $15. With just one investment, you could potentially set yourself up for massive financial gains.

Ethereum Co-Founder Vitalik Buterin Invests Ethereum Proceeds Into Aave, But Trader Says 'Not The Area To Buy'

Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) co-founder Vitalik Buterin swapped a significant sum of ETH to deposit into a DeFi protocol, with traders predicting a bright future for it.

US Steel CEO David Burritt Blasted By United Steelworkers President After $15B Deal With Nippon Steel Comes Under Biden Administration Scrutiny: 'Get A Decent CEO'

David McCall, President of United Steelworkers met Nippon Steel's Executive Vice President Takahiro Mori this summer to describe the union's demands, particularly ensuring that the Japanese steelmaker's parent sign the deal

DO NOT Make Another Trade Without Seeing This First

DO NOT Make Another Trade Without Seeing This First - Ad

Starting September 23... a huge secret of the markets could help you consistently target gains like: 126%... 245%... even 463% or more... often in 30 days or less... No matter what the market does next.

Johnson & Johnson-Spin Off Kenvue Wins Lawsuit Over Pain Killer Tylenol 'Rapid Release' Gelcaps

Kenvue defends against a consumer lawsuit alleging that its Tylenol "Rapid Release" gelcaps did not relieve pain faster than regular tablets. A federal judge ruled the claims were preempted by FDA regulations.

Video game performers reach agreement with 80 video games on AI terms

LOS ANGELES (AP) — After striking for over a month, have reached agreements with 80 games that have signed interim or tiered budget agreements with the performers' union and accepted the artificial intelligence provisions they have been seeking.

Oil = Monthly Income

Oil = Monthly Income - Ad

Right now, there's an unusual $25 way to collect MONTHLY income from the oil markets. It's not a stock, bond, or anything you've likely heard about... But it's by far my #1 investment opportunity for 2024.

Kamala Harris Vows Tougher Border Policy, Supports Israel's Armament In First Major Interview As Presidential Nominee

The interview marked Harris's first media appearance since accepting the Democratic nomination for president.

Top 3 Tech Stocks You'll Regret Missing This Month

The RSI is a momentum indicator, which compares a stock’s strength on days when prices go up to its strength on days when prices go down.

Don't Tell ANYONE About This Altcoin (Until It Pops)...

Don't Tell ANYONE About This Altcoin (Until It Pops)... - Ad

Quiet now! This governance token could be the sleeping giant of the crypto world... In the next bull market, this "DeFi 2.0" powerhouse might soar 10x... 50x... perhaps even 100x.

US-sanctioned Serbia official meets Putin, says Belgrade is an ally and won't join Western penalties

Serbia is a Russian ally and will never impose sanctions against Moscow or join NATO, the Balkan nation’s deputy prime minister said Wednesday as he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Trending Now