Trump Vs. Harris: Former President Posts Lead In Key Swing State, Vice President Gains Support In Key Voter Groups For Democrats

Chris Katje

August 28, 2024

A new swing state election poll shows Donald Trump with a lead over Vice President Kamala Harris with less than three months to go in the 2024 election.

While there are positives for Trump in the poll, Harris shows strength in key voter groups.

What Happened: Harris has been leading Trump in many 2024 election polls and gaining momentum since officially becoming the Democratic Party nominee in the presidential election.

A new poll from Noble Predictive Insights shows Trump with a lead in the key swing state of Arizona at 47% to 44%, as reported by the New York Post. The three-point lead is the same from May when Trump led President Joe Biden by three points.

However, this time around Harris has gained support for the Democratic Party among Independent voters, Latinos and young voters.

Harris also leads the head-to-head vote among Independent voters by five points, compared to Trump having a 10-point lead over Biden previously.

For voters aged 18-34, Harris leads Trump by 11 points, erasing a 2-point lead Trump previously had over Biden.

"Almost every poll is somewhere between Harris+5 and Trump+5. That suggests an almost tied race. We give a small edge to Trump in this poll — but, with more than two months to go, either candidate could win the state," NPI Chief of Research David Blyer said.

Trump was viewed as the more favorable candidate for top election issues of immigration, inflation, taxes and gun policy. Harris is viewed as more favorable on abortion, climate change, education and health care.

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Why It's Important: The new poll comes as the 2024 election polls are constantly changing with Biden out of the race and Harris now the nominee. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspending his campaign is also changing polls with more undecided voters or voters who were going to pick another candidate now choosing one candidate.

A sit-down interview for Kamala Harris with CNN on Aug. 29 and the upcoming presidential debate between Harris and Trump on Sept. 10 could provide more changes to election polls.

"The real question — the one that no one knows the answer to — is how Harris fares under scrutiny. She just secured the nomination, and voters don't know her the way they know Trump," NPI founder and CEO Mike Noble said.

Arizona is one of six or seven swing states viewed as toss-ups and could decide the 2024 election. Arizona is worth 11 electoral votes and has seen recent visits from the presidential and vice-presidential candidates in a push to secure the vote.

The state was won by Biden in the 2020 election and won by Trump in the 2016 election. The state voted Republican in 10 of the last 12 presidential elections dating back to 1976 according to 270towin.

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Lawmakers Made Huge Investments This Year. Get Tips On What They Bought And Sold Ahead Of The 2024 Election With Our Easy-to-Use Tool

Image: Gguy via Shutterstock

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