The AI Presentation 'They' Don't Want You to See

Wall Street legend confesses, "I feel a sense of duty to share what I know with as many people as I can... that's why I made this free for all to view."

June CPI Report On Traders' Radar: Analysts Predict S&P 500 Move For Thursday Under Different Inflation Scenarios

Shanthi Rexaline
July 10, 2024

Editor’s note: The story has been updated to reflect that the CPI data is due on Thursday.

The all-important consumer price inflation report for June – one of the important reports due before the Federal Reserve’s July 30-31 monetary policy committee meeting – is expected on Thursday.

What Happened: Economists, on average, expect June’s headline monthly consumer price inflation rate at 0.1%, a slight tick up from unchanged prices in May. Annually, the CPI inflation may have slowed from 3.3% to 3.0%.

The core consumer price index, which strips off volatile food and energy prices, is expected to have risen 0.2% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, essentially unchanged from corresponding May readings.

Inflation data is market-moving, given the implications it has for the Fed funds rate. Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, haven’t yet declared victory on inflation despite the pricing pressure thawing from a 9%+ level in June 2022. That said, inflation continues to hold stubbornly above the central bank’s 2% threshold.

In prepared remarks, delivered as part of his semi-annual monetary policy testimony before Congress on Tuesday, Powell said, “We do not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until we have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.”

That said, the Fed chair clearly messaged that any change in policy stance hinges on incoming data – a position Fed officials have been maintaining for some time now. “The most recent inflation readings, however, have shown some modest further progress, and more good data would strengthen our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%,” Powell said on Tuesday.

The comments did not alter the odds for the September meeting, with the futures market still pricing in a 73% chance of a rate cut.

See Also: Best Inflation Stocks

What’s Next: Traders have been discounting a downward rate move in September and this is one of the premises, along with the artificial intelligence technology, that has driven the stock market to dizzying heights.

The Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 Index have been notching record after record, while the 30-stock Dow Industrial Average has been the laggard.

Presenting all possible scenarios, JPMorgan’s trading desk flagged the likelihood of a move ranging from a negative 2.5% to a positive 1.75% for the S&P 500, according to the snapshot of the note shared by an X platform user.

Monthly headline inflationProbabilityS&P 500 Move
<0.10%2.50%+1.0% to +1.75%
0.10%-0.15%15%+1% to +1.5%
0.15%-0.20%35%+0.5% to +1%
0.20%-0.25%30%+0.25% to +0.75%
0.25%-0.30%15%-0.75% to -1.25%
>0.30%2.5%-1.25% to -2.50%

Energy prices rose in June amid supply concerns, with the WTI grade light-sweet crude advancing about 5.9% before ending the month at $81.54. The spotlight will be on the contentious shelter cost, which many argue is the reason behind inflation holding stubbornly high. Shelter costs account for 30-40% of the CPI.

The CPI basket includes rents and “owners' equivalent rents,” which estimate the amount a homeowner might charge if they rented out their own home. The OER component is considered a lagging indicator by many economists as it is the amount negotiated at the start of the lease, which may have been set well before that particular month.

Apart from the broader market impart, the report could also produce some volatility in Interest-rate sensitive sectors such as financial stocks, highly-leveraged companies and dividend-paying companies such as utilities, REITs and telecoms.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), an exchange-traded fund that tracks the performances of stocks that are part of the S&P 500 Index, settled Tuesday’s session up 0.10% at $555.82, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Read Next:

  • Why Hurricane Beryl Hasn’t Triggered Natural Gas Price Hikes So Far

Image via Shutterstock

Continue Reading...

Popular

Forget AI, Imperium Is Expected to Grow 320,000% In 3 Years - Ad

Three of the world's biggest AI companies -- Google, Nvidia and Intel -- have even partnered with my No. 1 Imperium company to get on this massive mega trend. The average investor hasn't caught on yet, but you can still invest in my No. 1 Imperium company for just $10 a share.

Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts Spotlight On 3 Financial Stocks Delivering High-Dividend Yields

During times of turbulence and uncertainty in the markets, even when markets are at all-time highs, many investors turn to dividend-yielding stocks.

Vietnam's VinFast looks to tiny EV, priced at less than $10,000, to change its fortunes

HANOI, Vietnam (AP) — Vietnamese automaker VinFast, for a short time the third-most valuable car company in the world, has a big problem: It just can’t sell enough cars.

Big Tech Is Spending Billions Each Month on This AI Superproject - Ad

Big Tech is committing billions each month to the construction of these AI mega data centers. This is where Nvidia, comes in. It's quietly leaning on a set of what we call Silent Partners to get the job done. These companies could benefit greatly from this next wave of the AI boom.

Biden Widely Criticized Over Debate Performance, But Poll Also Points To Concerning Signs For Trump

In the aftermath of the initial 2024 presidential debate, a recent poll reveals a decline in President Joe Biden's mental and physical fitness ratings.

Buy These 3 Stocks Before the FDA's Anticipated Announcement - Ad

See this ASAP! This could NOT be more urgent.... Ian King has identified 3 little-known stocks that could go up 10X in the coming years. It's all thanks to a breakthrough product that could save billions of lives. Maybe even yours.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin Stay Rangebound On Mt. Gox Anxiety: King Crypto Must Reclaim $64K For Sentiment To Flip Bullish, Says Analyst

Leading cryptocurrencies remained rangebound on Monday as investors braced for a week in which defunct exchange Mt.Gox will begin unloading a massive amount of coins onto the market.

Get in Our "Ozempic Trade" Before It's Too Late... - Ad

In the past 90 days, one stock has jumped 96% and another has gained 88%. Don't miss out on the next round of potential winners. Here are 4 "Ozempic Stocks" you must own.

Wheels Up Stock Is Rallying Tuesday: What's Driving The Action?

Wheels Up Experience Inc (NYSE:UP) shares are surging. The company on Tuesday announced a new streamline product portfolio in connection with Delta Air Lines Inc (NYSE:DAL), a strategic partner of the on-demand private aviation company.

Joe Biden's Biggest Mistake - Ad

On February 27, 2023, Joe Biden made a decision that could cost the U.S. government $9 trillion dollars...and cut the living standards of American citizens by 25%. How you handle this situation will be one of the most important financial decisions you ever make.

Verizon, AT&T, And T-Mobile Set For Gains, Goldman Sachs Cites AI and Data Center Demand

Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider initiates coverage on US Telecom Services and infrastructure sector, constructive on wireless carriers and data centers.

Brazil's Supreme Court Decriminalizes Cannabis Possession For Personal Use

Brazil's Supreme Court decriminalizes cannabis possession for personal use, marking a major shift in policy and reducing prison overcrowding.

Exposed: 3 Cent Crypto to Explode July 22nd? - Ad

Chris Rowe, the man who spotted 44 different coins that have returned over 100%, is now making the biggest crypto call of his ENTIRE career.... Because a powerful crypto event will trigger on June 24th... Sending hundreds of tiny cryptos soaring 5X, 50X, even 100X -- in just days.

US Allies Urge Biden To Step Down After Disastrous Debate Performance: 'Important To Manage One's Ride Into The Sunset'

The European allies of the United States are calling for President Joe Biden to step down following his widely criticized performance in the recent presidential debate.

Man Who Called Nvidia at $1.10 Says Buy This Now... - Ad

In 2004, a man predicted Nvidia's rise. Now, he says a new company, which IPO'd in 2023, could soar like Nvidia. It signed a major deal with Apple for its AI tech in iPhones and iMacs. Could it be the next trillion-dollar company? See why he believes it's among "The Next Magnificent Seven."

What's Going On With Cheche Group Shares Today?

Cheche Group shares rise as it expands insurance collaborations with BAIC Group's Beijing Anpeng, enhancing ties with new energy vehicle manufacturers in China.

Nike Analysts Sour On Retailer's Short-Term Prospects Following Poor Outlook: 'No Quick Rebound'

Nike shares plummet after weak revenue numbers and lowered guidance. Analysts have mixed opinions, with some seeing a long-term play and others disappointed by lifestyle category trends.

New "Living Missile" to Replace Nuclear Missiles - Ad

CBS News Reports: "It's an entirely new type of weapon." The New York Times Reports: "No existing defense can stop it." And one small company is building them for the Pentagon!

Jim Cramer Has A Market Strategy: Interest Rates Up, Buy Mag 7; Rates Down, Buy Everything

Jim Cramer, the host of CNBC's "Mad Money," has advised investors to consider buying the 'MAG 7' stocks when interest rates rise and to buy everything when rates fall.

TikTok And Social Media Influencers Drive Gen Z's Shopping Habits In Asia-Pacific: Report

The shopping habits of Generation Z in the Asia-Pacific region are being significantly influenced by TikTok and social media influencers, a KPMG report has revealed.

The 7th Trillion Dollar Company? - Ad

There are six American companies worth over $1 trillion. Could there be a seventh soon? This company signed a massive deal with Apple until 2040 and is also involved with Nvidia, Google, and Samsung. Could this be the next trillion-dollar company? A top stock expertpicker thinks so.

New Home Sales Dip In May As High Mortgage Rates Keep Buyers 'On The Sidelines'

Sales of new single-family homes declined in May due to high mortgage rates. Median sales price was $417,400. Inventory low, demand strong.

The Election Shock Nobody Expected... (But You'll See it Coming) - Ad

It comes down to just 9 words... Nine simple words which when spoken, will determine the outcome of the 2024 election... These words have nothing to do with Trump, the economy, or what's happening in Ukraine, China or Israel. This is the scandal that isn't being reported (yet.) But my political operatives tracked down this story.

Arkansas sues 2 pharmacy benefit managers, accusing them of fueling opioid epidemic in state

LITTLE ROCK, Ark. (AP) — Arkansas on Monday sued two pharmacy benefit managers that oversee coverage for insurers, employers and other large clients, accusing them of fueling the opioid crisis in the state.

Peter Schiff Says 'Things Will Likely Get Much Worse From Here' For Bitcoin Investors, But 3 BTC Metrics Are Flashing Bullish Signals, According To Expert

Economist and well-known Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) critic Peter Schiff has issued a warning to investors, predicting a gloomy outlook. However, an investment expert has identified three bullish signals for the King Crypto.

Stocks Inch Up, Bonds Dip; Tesla And EVs Rally; Oil Tops $83: What's Driving Markets Monday?

It’s a mixed start to the week on Wall Street, with major large-cap indices slightly above the break-even point by midday trading in New York.

Chipmakers, Cruise Lines, Crypto Rally, Nvidia Reclaims $3 Trillion; Blue Chips, Small Caps Dip: What's Driving Markets Tuesday?

Tech stocks are poised to break a three-day losing streak on Tuesday, driven by a robust rally in chipmakers, with Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) rising over 4% and reclaiming its $3-trillion....

Are Banks Already Using Your ESG Score Against You? - Ad

As we speak, the powers that be are building a full-scale social credit system ...And soon, it could be used to control the way you live your life. Legendary financial forecaster, Dr. Martin Weiss recorded an urgent message on how to prepare, including the three steps you should consider RIGHT NOW.

Tesla Loses Lead In EV Quality Among Peers: Auto Expert Pins It On Removal Of Stalks For Buttons

EV giant Tesla has lost its edge in terms of vehicle quality over EVs made by rival OEMs, as per automotive industry consultant JD Power.

Ethereum Co-Founder Confident Cardano Will Flip Bitcoin To Emerge As World's Biggest Crypto: 'There's Nothing That Can Compete With It'

Cardano (CRYPTO: ADA) founder Charles Hoskinson expressed confidence that the native coin of the ecosystem will flip Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) to become the world's largest cryptocurrency in the future.

Next Hot AI Projects Are Not on the Nasdaq - Ad

The next hot AI stocks -- are not stocks at all. You can find them in a virtually unknown niche in the market, which has delivered some of the biggest winners in AI. In this interview, we sit down with the foremost expert on this niche market. He'll tell us exactly where to find these hot AI projects.

Trending Now

Information, charts or examples are for illustration and educational purposes only and not for individualized investment management This message contains commercial elements, such as advertising. We only send these offers to those who have opted in to our newsletter. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For these reasons we strongly suggest trading in a DEMO/Simulated account. The information provided by us is for educational and informational purposes only. We make no representations or warranties concerning the products, practices or procedures of any company or entity mentioned or recommended and have not determined if the statements and opinions of the advertiser are accurate, correct or truthful. If you use, act upon or make decisions in reliance on information contained or any external source linked within it, you do so at your own peril and agree to hold us, our officers, directors, shareholders, affiliates and agents without fault.

Copyright markethundred.com
Privacy Policy | Terms of Service